Financial and Trading Analysis December 2021

Struggling. Haven't touched my code in a week after rollercoaster and exhausting week emotionally two weeks ago, with Sylvia's book launch, the market exploding erratically, and our cat disappearing.

Losses in my portfolio are stubbornly staying high and increased fast in the second half of Novemebr to some terrible decisions, where I refused to take losses. Tech stocks rose dramatically in the first half of November, then crashed spectacularly in the second half, wiping out all my November and October gains in just ten days.

In addition to that, I hit the wall with my stock market automation coding, struggling so much to make progress on even a few lines of code. Overall this created overwhelming discouragement. Out in the world, new covid variants and rising cases in Europe made it clear that the forces of stupidity and destructiveness in the world were coming to the fore. I found this all incredibly depressing.

During the turmoil in the markets, my MACD continuous trading backtest continued to make money, reaching an average per day profit of $4700, well into my Financial Wizard level. But as some of my backtest positions got larger and larger, so did some of the losses, sometimes spectacularly, with LCID being an alarming example. 

My MACD backtesting results are spectacular, but I cannot bring myself to trade based on that strategy in real money investment accounts. This disconnect between what I know is possible and my ability to actually execute is what is so discouraging.   

Net Worth up 16% 

Overall, our net worth increase this year due to the spectacular growth in our house value. The 2021 growth is clearly not sustainable, and is likely to cool off in 2022. Given overall real estate demand and the impact of covid leading to more people working from home, and especially in Vista where property sizes are larger and relatively more affordable, it seems unlikely that a large scale property crash is likely. 

Borrowing down 4% 

This is a modest drop due to all other debts apart from our mortgage being paid off in 2020, and represents ongoing mortgage payments which reduce debt by about $1000 per month. 

Cash down 

Investment and Retirement down